{"id":4343,"date":"2023-11-10T15:34:58","date_gmt":"2023-11-10T15:34:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.365scores.com\/news\/?p=4343"},"modified":"2023-11-10T15:34:59","modified_gmt":"2023-11-10T15:34:59","slug":"scotts-seven-nfl-picks-week-10","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wordpress.365scores.com\/news\/scotts-seven-nfl-picks-week-10","title":{"rendered":"Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 10"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By Scott Kacsmar<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The NFL<\/a> has a Week 10 schedule that has people groaning, but that\u2019s mostly because they picked the wrong island games. There should be some quality football played in 49ers-Jaguars<\/a>, the Ravens are trying to sweep the Browns in an important AFC North game, and Lions-Chargers should be fun. But getting up early to watch Colts-Patriots in Germany? I\u2019ll pass on that even if we did find a way to work it into our NFL picks below.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In recapping our Week 9 NFL picks<\/a>, the Chiefs-Dolphins game was a massive letdown as even Commanders-Patriots had more points scored. At least the Cowboys and Eagles both scored 20 points for us. The week could have been salvaged if Davante Adams caught 2 more balls to make our Josh McDaniels Happy Firing parlay hit (+267), but the real heartbreaker was Jaren Hall suffering a concussion in the first quarter in Atlanta, because everything was going to hit there for our Minnesota parlay with Jordan Addison and the passing game producing (+247).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Each Friday, we will share seven NFL picks that we are including in our bets for the weekend. These can be prop picks, spreads, totals, alternate lines, moneylines, same game parlays, etc. We like to think outside the box instead of just telling you Dallas beating the Giants as a 16-point favorite is a good pick. You can play the picks separately or parlay your favorite choices together.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note: Picks are ranked in order of confidence (highest to lowest).<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1. 49ers-Jaguars: Feeling the Under<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The passing of time can somehow feel fast and slow simultaneously. It was barely a month ago when the 49ers were 5-0, scored 30 points in every game, and were the talk of the NFL. Yet that somehow feels so long ago as the 49ers are 0-3 since, and they only scored 17 points in each loss.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They hope to rebound off their bye week, but the Jacksonville Jaguars<\/a> also had a bye week, they have the longest active win streak at 5 games, and they are still the 3-point home underdog in this matchup.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But if Brock Purdy is going to get back on track and avoid turnovers, an early body clock game in Jacksonville against the defense with the most takeaways (18) and interceptions (11) through 8 games this season may be a bad matchup for him.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here is an interesting trend that further got me on board with the under 45 in this game. Since 2021, there have been 48 games where the home team was exactly a 3-point underdog. The under is 34-13-1 (70.8%) in those games, which is an incredible hit rate for something that is usually around 50%.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jacksonville does not play the most exciting brand of football, so that probably has something to do with their lack of respect in the Super Bowl odds<\/a> despite their record. The Jaguars lost a 17-9 game at home to the Chiefs in Week 2, and their last game was a 20-10 slog in Pittsburgh with some rain. The Jaguars are also 25th on third down and 26th in the red zone, so the offense has not been the sharpest, and the 49ers are still one of the most talented defenses in the league.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The bye week boost is a little overstated, and the advantage is almost nothing here given both teams are coming off their bye. If anything, they might come out slow since it is a 10:00 a.m. PST start for the 49ers across the country. Last year, the 49ers beat the Chargers 22-16 after their bye. Kyle Shanahan has some work to do with this year\u2019s team as it works through this losing streak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a game with an inefficient offense (Jacksonville), an elite defense (49ers), a turnover-friendly quarterback (Purdy), and a turnover-happy defense (Jags), we\u2019ll take the under.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If you need a little more juice than this under, you could parlay it with Christian McCaffrey scoring a touchdown for the 18th game in a row for some nice negative correlation (+211 at FanDuel). He has been about the only automatic offensive player in the league in the last year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scott\u2019s NFL Pick: 49ers-Jaguars Under 45 (-110 at Caesars Sportsbook)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

2. Lions-Chargers: Getting Back on Brand<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A consistent theme you\u2019ll see this week is that we are trashing island games, which are the games where it\u2019s the only game going on (Thursday night, Sunday night, Monday night, and international games in London or Germany). The caliber of these games has been awful this year, most of the matchups were bad on paper, and scoring is down in these games that are rarely exciting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Lions just had a bye week, but their last game in Week 8 was a 26-14 trampling of the Raiders that should have been a bigger margin of victory than it was. Meanwhile, we just watched the Chargers<\/a> crush the Bears and Jets in prime time the last two weeks by a combined 38 points. The Chargers led by double digits after each quarter in both games.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is so not what the Chargers are about. In fact, you can go back 10 seasons and you\u2019ll only find two games where the Chargers led by double digits after each quarter. Yet they did that in two weeks in a row. This is a team that is constantly involved in a one-score game late in the fourth quarter every week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thankfully, this game is in the 4:25 slot on Sunday, and it should be the highlight of that window. This is a game where the Chargers should get back on track in playing normal games where the offense looks good, the defense looks bad, and it has an exciting finish.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the Lions are possibly getting David Montgomery back at running back, but they also have rookie Jahmyr Gibbs. They have Amon-Ra St. Brown, who plays the game like a younger Keenan Allen. Jared Goff should feel right at home in Los Angeles as he is having another strong season for Detroit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This should be a fun offensive game for a change. We\u2019ll take a game prop where both teams scored at least one touchdown in each half. This prop has not hit for the Chargers since their Week 6 loss against Dallas, but Detroit is the right opponent that should bring out the best in Justin Herbert, and some not-so-great moments for Brandon Staley\u2019s defense.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

You know, a real Chargers game unlike these last two weeks in prime time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scott\u2019s NFL Pick: Both teams to score 1+ TD in each half (+102 at FanDuel)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

3. Browns-Ravens: Baltimore to Complete Sweep<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Ravens (7-2) are a 6.5-point home favorite against Cleveland (5-3). The teams already met in Week 4 and the Ravens won 28-3. But the Browns had to start rookie quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who threw 3 interceptions and took 4 sacks. The Ravens<\/a> were effective on offense with Lamar Jackson accounting for 4 total touchdowns, but they were helped by field position with some touchdown drives that only covered 10 and 38 yards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Still, we like the Ravens to complete the sweep at home with a 2-leg parlay:<\/p>\n\n\n\n